The AI Industrial Explosion — Part 4: Cheap power
What's the cheapest energy system we could plausibly build, and could it keep pace with explosive post-AGI growth?
Damon Binder
The AI Industrial Explosion — Part 3: Going faster
How much faster could an AI-automated economy grow without inventing new technology? Reoptimizing across today's frontier plants and considering historical labor-intensive methods cuts the doubling time roughly in half, to four-to-eight months
The AI Industrial Explosion — Part 2: Transition Dynamics
How fast could an AI-automated economy actually start growing? Today's economy doesn't produce enough of the stuff that makes stuff. Restructuring takes a few years — but then the second doubling comes in half the time, and the economy is many times its current size within a decade.
The AI Industrial Explosion — Part 1: Maximum growth rates with current production methods
How fast can an AI-driven economy grow? Economists expect a few percentage points; at best those closer to AI development imagine Dyson spheres within years. Who is correct?
How I currently use AIs for research
I thought I'd document how I'm currently using AI tools, both because it's changed a lot in the past month and also in the hope that someone can look at this, be horrified, and tell me all the things I'm doing that could be better.
Will whole brain emulation matter for the AI transition?
Whole brain emulation gets suggested as a potential AI-safety lever. Here we investigate two questions: when could we get it relative to superintelligence, and would it matter if we did?