The AI Industrial Explosion — Part 4: Cheap power
What's the cheapest energy system we could plausibly build, and could it keep pace with explosive post-AGI growth?
The AI Industrial Explosion — Part 3: Going faster
How much faster could an AI-automated economy grow without inventing new technology? Reoptimizing across today's frontier plants and considering historical labor-intensive methods cuts the doubling time roughly in half, to four-to-eight months
How I think about catastrophic biological risk (part II): risk breakdown by type of prevention
How I think about catastrophic biological risk (part I): risk breakdown by type of response
This series of posts outlines how I think about the most extreme types of risks. My goal here is to share my worldview in a straightforward and compressed form rather than trying to persuade a skeptical audience, although I do share some of my reasoning.
The AI Industrial Explosion — Part 2: Transition Dynamics
How fast could an AI-automated economy actually start growing? Today's economy doesn't produce enough of the stuff that makes stuff. Restructuring takes a few years — but then the second doubling comes in half the time, and the economy is many times its current size within a decade.
10 big projects for reducing bio x-risk
The field of people working on reducing bio x-risk is distressingly small. I sketch out 10 big, urgent projects I'd be excited for new people to come work on and own.